Baby faced youngster Linus Gerdemann, the anti-doping cheerleader, took an impressive win today. After being involved in a breakaway for much of the day, Lovely Linus attacked his group and soloed over the last kilometers of the Colombiere and battled bravely on for the solo win in his first ever Tour. At a mere 24 years old, he slips into the yellow jersey of race leader and also holds the white jersey of the best young rider.
The Banged-up Boys, Kloden and Vinokourov, soldiered on bravely through the obvious pain. Both finished safely in the pack with the main GC contenders. All in all, almost all of the GC contenders seemed to be biding their time and riding very conservatively. Though it was Bastille Day, none of the French riders seemed to be up for the fight today. National champion Moreau rode safely in the GC pack and kept out of trouble, rather than going for the win or flying the tri-color jersey for the French fans along the route. He's obviously planning to be in the fight when it really matters.
Tomorrow is a day where it really matters. The stage rolls through many painful climbs, concluding with three category 1 climbs in succession. The stage finishes on the tough slopes of the Monte de Tignes... and should prove to be a very decisive day for the GC contenders. Either a group of non-contenders will be allowed to spend the day out front, or the GC contedners feeling good will try to shatter the other riders. My prediction? Dang, I really don't know... but I'm gonna go way out on a limb and say that Leipheimer might take a stab at things- whether for the win or just to get time on the other GC riders. Outside of Levi, I'm gonna go with Haimar Zubeldia. Levi may want to show he's the same rider who won the Tour of California and Zubeldia could be the only hope that Euskaltel-Euskadi has of getting a stage win.
We'll see what the Squirrel and BK have to say about things...
The Tour said au revoir to Oscar Freire. The fragile Spanish sprinter had been very close to getting a stage win this year, but his butt was not in the mood... his subcutaneous cyst has returned and got him... in the end.
Tomorrow could be a very big day; we'll see what happens on the slopes of the Alps. (Maybe even Rasmussen will take a shot at things.)
Tim
Saturday, July 14, 2007
Friday, July 13, 2007
Tour de France- Stage 6
Boonen finally wins a stage and I didn't pick him! WTF?
Yes, Terrible Tom finally got his stage win. I knew it would happen, or at least hoped... but I hadn't planned for it to be today. Lame, Tom... really lame.
Yes, Tom Boonen won a relatively uneventful stage today. Bradley /Wiggins spent much of the day on a solo break and was caught by the charging field just before the line... with just 7km remaining, meaning he spent about 190km all alone on the front of the race... just to get caught. There were rumors that Brad was allowed the time off the front in honor of the 40th anniversary of the tragic death of fellow British rider Tom Simpson on the slopes of Mount Ventoux in 1967. True or not, for fans of the Tour, it serves as a monument in the sport. God rest your soul, Tom.
The Astana duo of Vinoukorov and Kloden managed to finish the stage with the field and without furthering their injuries. Both were said to be sore, but doing ok. Kloden has the more complicated injury of the two, since it is awfully painful to sit on a cracked tail bone and tomorrow is a long day of climbing in the Alps. Needless to say, his ass will be sore. Vino will likely be taking it easy tomorrow as well, since his muscle soreness will be kicking in. You know how it is- two days after a crash, or other injury, is when the muscle pain really sets in. Tomorrow is gonna suck.
Speaking of tomorrow... the sun will come out, tomorrow, bet your bottom dollar... no... wait. What I meant is that tomorrow is the first day of real climbs as the Tour enters the Alps and the real race begins. After today's relatively easy stage, expect plenty of fireworks tomorrow.
Not that you can see from the image I stole from VeloNews... but tomorrow has the Col de la Colombiere as the final climb of the day, with the summit less than 15km from the finish. Sure, it's a downhill run to the finish... but what an uphill before you get there! I am going to venture a guess here... and it is really a guess... and make Cyril Dessel and Nicolas Portal my top picks for the day. Why two French riders? Well, tomorrow is Bastille Day (the French version of July 4th) and the French riders will be seen as national heroes if they can pull off the win. So expect them all to be seriously flogging themselves to try and get the win. Both of these guys can climb and are both down the GC far enough to not really worry the rest of the GC contenders. Expect fireworks all day, but the real GC riders will be riding to protect their positions on the first day of real climbing. It's a long Tour and tomorrow could prove decisive... but it won't most likely. It's just too soon. That said- I could easily be wrong (again).
So there you have it!
Tim
Yes, Terrible Tom finally got his stage win. I knew it would happen, or at least hoped... but I hadn't planned for it to be today. Lame, Tom... really lame.
Yes, Tom Boonen won a relatively uneventful stage today. Bradley /Wiggins spent much of the day on a solo break and was caught by the charging field just before the line... with just 7km remaining, meaning he spent about 190km all alone on the front of the race... just to get caught. There were rumors that Brad was allowed the time off the front in honor of the 40th anniversary of the tragic death of fellow British rider Tom Simpson on the slopes of Mount Ventoux in 1967. True or not, for fans of the Tour, it serves as a monument in the sport. God rest your soul, Tom.
The Astana duo of Vinoukorov and Kloden managed to finish the stage with the field and without furthering their injuries. Both were said to be sore, but doing ok. Kloden has the more complicated injury of the two, since it is awfully painful to sit on a cracked tail bone and tomorrow is a long day of climbing in the Alps. Needless to say, his ass will be sore. Vino will likely be taking it easy tomorrow as well, since his muscle soreness will be kicking in. You know how it is- two days after a crash, or other injury, is when the muscle pain really sets in. Tomorrow is gonna suck.
Speaking of tomorrow... the sun will come out, tomorrow, bet your bottom dollar... no... wait. What I meant is that tomorrow is the first day of real climbs as the Tour enters the Alps and the real race begins. After today's relatively easy stage, expect plenty of fireworks tomorrow.
Not that you can see from the image I stole from VeloNews... but tomorrow has the Col de la Colombiere as the final climb of the day, with the summit less than 15km from the finish. Sure, it's a downhill run to the finish... but what an uphill before you get there! I am going to venture a guess here... and it is really a guess... and make Cyril Dessel and Nicolas Portal my top picks for the day. Why two French riders? Well, tomorrow is Bastille Day (the French version of July 4th) and the French riders will be seen as national heroes if they can pull off the win. So expect them all to be seriously flogging themselves to try and get the win. Both of these guys can climb and are both down the GC far enough to not really worry the rest of the GC contenders. Expect fireworks all day, but the real GC riders will be riding to protect their positions on the first day of real climbing. It's a long Tour and tomorrow could prove decisive... but it won't most likely. It's just too soon. That said- I could easily be wrong (again).
So there you have it!
Tim
Thursday, July 12, 2007
Tour de France- Stage 5
Pippo Pozzato pulls off a nice win. I'd call it a "surprise" win, but he's a former winner of Milan San Remo and I predicted that a classics rider would likely win today (so why I didn't pick him... not too sure). The surprise, if there is one, is that he got the win sprinting through a pretty select group that included new green jersey Erik Zabel. Zabel is now 36 years old and is wearing the green jersey. He's only one year younger than me, so maybe I should really and truly come out of retirement now. Zabel is also a 6 time winner of the green jersey during his career. It'd be hard for him to get #7, but I am unwilling to rule it out. He's certainly a sentimental favorite... despite his recent doping confession ("I only tried it for part of one season"... lame).
Pozzato is a very classy young rider, only 25 years old. He's already got wins under his belt that other riders would wait an entire career to have... and his best years are easily ahead of him. This young man could prove to be one of the best Italian classics riders to show up since Franco Ballerini or Michele Bartoli... and that's saying something.
The day, though exciting enough for the winner, was probably more exciting for the drama prior to the finish when Astana riders were caught up in crashes. Andreas Kloden kissed the asphalt with his ass cheeks a little more than 100km into the race, but (butt?) was able to chase back into the field and finish with the main group. Sadly, it looks like he may have fractured his tail bone and is now in question for tomorrow's stage. With about 25km to go, Vinoukorov hit the deck when he had problems with his chain. He went over the bars and landed hard- ripping open his shorts (and exposing his ass cheek) and really banged up his knee as well. Vino in a moment of need, called for his team to come to his aid to help him catch the field. The break up the road was being chased hard by the field, so Vino and the Astana team had to essentially time trial to minimize their leader's losses. In the end, Vino lost a minute and a half and is going to have a hard day tomorrow with his sore knee and other muscles problems that follow a hard crash. Could his Tour hopes be dead? They could be, but it is certain that he will not go down without a fight... you can bank on that.
Neither BK or myself had a particularly good day with our predictions... so the score remains the same and now I have to try and pick a winner. Since tomorrow's stage is nearly flat, with just two cat 4 climbs and then a 45km nearly flat run to the finish line, a sprint is all but assured. With that in mind, I'm gonna go out on a limb and pick Hushovd and Napolitano for tomorrow. One of the two should be in the top four tomorrow... please. (I can't let Jessi win...)
Fun stuff (marginally Tour related); go read this little gem by Bob Roll, over at the Kryptonite blog. Pure poetry... Bobke style.
Until tomorrow,
Tim
Pozzato is a very classy young rider, only 25 years old. He's already got wins under his belt that other riders would wait an entire career to have... and his best years are easily ahead of him. This young man could prove to be one of the best Italian classics riders to show up since Franco Ballerini or Michele Bartoli... and that's saying something.
The day, though exciting enough for the winner, was probably more exciting for the drama prior to the finish when Astana riders were caught up in crashes. Andreas Kloden kissed the asphalt with his ass cheeks a little more than 100km into the race, but (butt?) was able to chase back into the field and finish with the main group. Sadly, it looks like he may have fractured his tail bone and is now in question for tomorrow's stage. With about 25km to go, Vinoukorov hit the deck when he had problems with his chain. He went over the bars and landed hard- ripping open his shorts (and exposing his ass cheek) and really banged up his knee as well. Vino in a moment of need, called for his team to come to his aid to help him catch the field. The break up the road was being chased hard by the field, so Vino and the Astana team had to essentially time trial to minimize their leader's losses. In the end, Vino lost a minute and a half and is going to have a hard day tomorrow with his sore knee and other muscles problems that follow a hard crash. Could his Tour hopes be dead? They could be, but it is certain that he will not go down without a fight... you can bank on that.
Neither BK or myself had a particularly good day with our predictions... so the score remains the same and now I have to try and pick a winner. Since tomorrow's stage is nearly flat, with just two cat 4 climbs and then a 45km nearly flat run to the finish line, a sprint is all but assured. With that in mind, I'm gonna go out on a limb and pick Hushovd and Napolitano for tomorrow. One of the two should be in the top four tomorrow... please. (I can't let Jessi win...)
Fun stuff (marginally Tour related); go read this little gem by Bob Roll, over at the Kryptonite blog. Pure poetry... Bobke style.
Until tomorrow,
Tim
Wednesday, July 11, 2007
Tour de France- Stage 4
Hushovd, the big Norwegian gear masher, pulled off a great win today. Even though it puts me in the whole points-wise, I'm really glad to see Thor get his first win of this season. The poor guy was winless until today, so the win could not have come at a better time for him and you could clearly see the happiness on his face as he crossed the line, arms up high, pumping the air.
Photo-AFP/ CyclingNews.com
Photo-AFP/ CyclingNews.comA dangerous looking break managed to stay out nearly all day, though not as close as the bonehead break of yesterday. With less than 30km raced, a small group got away and then with less than 5km remaining, the break was caught. Juan Antonio Flecha of Rabobank was the real danger man- not to the GC, but to the break, as he is a great classics rider and is very strong in a small break. As the break was getting closer, I thought for sure he would get away for the win- like what I was hoping Schumacher would do. Oh well, better luck tomorrow...
Tomorrow's stage is a pretty tough one, the hardest one so far this Tour. There are several categorized climbs, 4 category 4, 3 category 3 and 1 category 2 climb. It's been compared to Liege-Bastogne-Liege, so expect breaks all day long and a likely winner from a break and no field sprint. I'm picking a tough guy to win the stage and hopefully I won't be let down. I'm picking Stuart O'Grady, who wants to redeem himself after his disastrous opening prologue, and also Michael Boogerd. Boogie is retiring after this season and this is his last Tour. He'd like a win and he certainly could pull one off- a fitting end to a great career. So we'll see what happens.
Until tomorrow...
Tim
Tomorrow's stage is a pretty tough one, the hardest one so far this Tour. There are several categorized climbs, 4 category 4, 3 category 3 and 1 category 2 climb. It's been compared to Liege-Bastogne-Liege, so expect breaks all day long and a likely winner from a break and no field sprint. I'm picking a tough guy to win the stage and hopefully I won't be let down. I'm picking Stuart O'Grady, who wants to redeem himself after his disastrous opening prologue, and also Michael Boogerd. Boogie is retiring after this season and this is his last Tour. He'd like a win and he certainly could pull one off- a fitting end to a great career. So we'll see what happens.
Until tomorrow...
Tim
Tuesday, July 10, 2007
Tour de France- Stage 3
Fabulous Fabian Fools Fast Freaks in France!
I swear, I missed my calling.
Yes, today's longest stage was one [won-Ed] by current Time Trial World Champion, former Paris-Roubaix winner and current yellow jersey wearer Fabian Cancellara. After a breakaway dominated much of the day, the longest stage of the Tour, Fabian Cancellara launched an impressive attack in the final meters of the race to hold off the rest of the field. The sprinters were all caught sleeping as Fabian stormed across the cobbles (um, hello... he's a winner of Roubaix) and yanked victory away from the dumbfounded sprinters. I'm not sure if I'm more stupified by the actions of the sprinters or the four riders from the break who screwed themselves out of the victory by making tactical errors (playing cat and mouse with the field chasing them down). These four had the day wrapped up and they let it go by thinking of the win too soon, rather than sticking together and working a little longer. Sorry fellas... but that was a dumbass move.
Oh well, this just means that now BK is ahead of me by one point and I get first stab at tomorrow's winners; Boonen and Stefan Schumacher. Tomorrow's stage has several category 4 climbs and is otherwise fairly hilly, in a rolling way. Nothing big or difficult, but lots of rolling hills to keep things interesting. If it comes to a sprint, then I'm picking Boonen. Otherwise, I'm picking Schumacher to sneak off the front or sprint out of a small group and take the win. I'm gambling, but I'm a gamblin' man by nature.
Today was a great stage and the right man won. It's always great to see the Yellow Jersey attacking and making the race come alive. Cancellara continues to impress with his sheer class and aggressive riding (man, I hope he isn't doping and I end up regretting those words). So far, this Tour has been a good one.
Ok, BK... time to make your picks.
Tim
Monday, July 09, 2007
Tour de France- Stage 2
For those who are keeping score; I've got 7 points to BK's 4. Just in case you were wondering... (I love ya sis...)
Today's stage was great, not for the usual crashes that might have put an end to a few races for folks, but because Tom Boonen (directly or indirectly) did the right thing and allowed his teammate to take his first ever Tour stage win. Gert Steegmans is one of Tom's most valuable leadout men during the season and he flogs himself day in and day out to get Tom to the line first. Today, whether Gert was simply faster or Tom was just being nice, Steegmans got the win instead. A Belgian winning a Tour stage in Belgium is about as good as it ever gets in a professional cyclist's life. Whether Tom simply got outsprinted by his leadout man or not, I am happy to see the finish today. It isn't often, regardless of the reasons why, that a domestique gets the big win. To me, I think it rocks!
Not much else really happened, other than it rained like hell and riders ate pavement again and got all beat up. Hincapie didn't look good, nor did yellow jersey Cancellara. The stage was damned near board flat. Tomorrow's stage is only slightly hillier with 1 rated Category 4 climb. Shouldn't be too hard for David Millar to keep the polka dot jersey another day. The big news about the stage tomorrow is that it is the longest of this year's race- 236.5km! I'm picking either McEwen or Hushovd to win (even though some people think I always pick Boonen- his initials are Chuck Cowan... no wait, that's not initials... um... Behind Bars... dammit... that's not right either...). Robbie, if his wrist and knee hold up, should be in good shape for the stage win again- he's just too plucky. If not, expect to see Hushovd with the win. He's a great Classics rider and tomorrow will seem a lot like a Classics race. The race finishes with a short section of cobblestones near the finish line.... expect to see carnage there. It comes just before the finish and many riders will be fighting for position. Expect their "position" to be sprawled out across the pavement. It should be ugly- especially if it is raining again.
God I love this race!
Tim
Today's stage was great, not for the usual crashes that might have put an end to a few races for folks, but because Tom Boonen (directly or indirectly) did the right thing and allowed his teammate to take his first ever Tour stage win. Gert Steegmans is one of Tom's most valuable leadout men during the season and he flogs himself day in and day out to get Tom to the line first. Today, whether Gert was simply faster or Tom was just being nice, Steegmans got the win instead. A Belgian winning a Tour stage in Belgium is about as good as it ever gets in a professional cyclist's life. Whether Tom simply got outsprinted by his leadout man or not, I am happy to see the finish today. It isn't often, regardless of the reasons why, that a domestique gets the big win. To me, I think it rocks!
Not much else really happened, other than it rained like hell and riders ate pavement again and got all beat up. Hincapie didn't look good, nor did yellow jersey Cancellara. The stage was damned near board flat. Tomorrow's stage is only slightly hillier with 1 rated Category 4 climb. Shouldn't be too hard for David Millar to keep the polka dot jersey another day. The big news about the stage tomorrow is that it is the longest of this year's race- 236.5km! I'm picking either McEwen or Hushovd to win (even though some people think I always pick Boonen- his initials are Chuck Cowan... no wait, that's not initials... um... Behind Bars... dammit... that's not right either...). Robbie, if his wrist and knee hold up, should be in good shape for the stage win again- he's just too plucky. If not, expect to see Hushovd with the win. He's a great Classics rider and tomorrow will seem a lot like a Classics race. The race finishes with a short section of cobblestones near the finish line.... expect to see carnage there. It comes just before the finish and many riders will be fighting for position. Expect their "position" to be sprawled out across the pavement. It should be ugly- especially if it is raining again.
God I love this race!
Tim
Sunday, July 08, 2007
More Sneak Peeks!
Just got a couple first sample frames the other day and man, oh man are they beautiful. So, because I love you and want you to be happy... here they are for your viewing pleasure;
First up- here's the first sample of the new color of the Speciale Fixed (minus the new fork)-
I wish I coulda captured just how awesome that metallic green is. Those panels are a nice, creamy beige- even the one on the seat tube that is placed too high (it'll be fixed by production).
It's soooooooooo purdy!
You can see the metallic a little better here.
While we're on the whole track/ fixed theme... here's the long awaited (by me anyway) Coltello frameset-
Another gorgeous metallic! My flash is just too darned bright, so it kinda washes out. But the color is insanely good.
I admit that I have a penchant for metallic paint. The previous version of the frame uses a metallic red that I will find a home for again on another model soon... it's just a sweet color. I just love it when a bike sparkles in the sunlight.
So anyway, there's your first round of samples to slobber over. Ok, I'll leave you alone to salivate.
Tim
First up- here's the first sample of the new color of the Speciale Fixed (minus the new fork)-
I wish I coulda captured just how awesome that metallic green is. Those panels are a nice, creamy beige- even the one on the seat tube that is placed too high (it'll be fixed by production).
It's soooooooooo purdy!
You can see the metallic a little better here.While we're on the whole track/ fixed theme... here's the long awaited (by me anyway) Coltello frameset-
Another gorgeous metallic! My flash is just too darned bright, so it kinda washes out. But the color is insanely good.
I admit that I have a penchant for metallic paint. The previous version of the frame uses a metallic red that I will find a home for again on another model soon... it's just a sweet color. I just love it when a bike sparkles in the sunlight.So anyway, there's your first round of samples to slobber over. Ok, I'll leave you alone to salivate.
Tim
Tour de France- Stage 1
Well, I was almost right today... I had McEwen in second behind Boonen, but McEwen won the stage and Boonen faded to third. Hushovd took a close second to sandwich between my picks for the day's stage. This mean- gulp- that BK won today's pick-a-thon. She came up with some squirrelly ass rules that first person to pick gets their picks to themselves and the second person to pick has to pick totally different riders. Weak... but I'm a big boy and a good sport, so I'm not taking my toys and going home mad. Since I "lost" today, I get to have first pick for tomorrow. Great... that means I'm picking Boonen to win (finally, I hope) and McEwen to take second. Boonen will want the win, since it is in Belgium and he's the King of Sport in Belgium. McEwen lives very near the finish in Ghent and rides for a Belgian team, so he's going to be just as motivated as Tom... but I'm gonna give the edge to a super-motivated Boonen. (Possible spoiler on the day to Hushovd.)
Hats off today, to McEwen though. In the closing stages of the race, 21km from the finish, McEwen was caught in a pile-up of riders and had to rely heavily on a few teammates to help him regain contact with the race. At the front, Lampre-Fondital and Quickstep were drilling it for the finish line and to catch the remaining riders of a long break that contained David Millar (who managed to gain enough time bonuses to move up to third overall and enough points to become the race's first KOM- bravo Dave). The fast moving field wasn't quite fast enoug hto drop McEwen altogether and he managed to catch back on with 5km to go, after an all out chase that would have left most riders too thrashed to be able to even consider contesting the sprint. But, with his usual uncanny sense of timing and bike handling, McEwen made it to the front and blasted out of the field with 150m to go. Robbie launched like a missile and quickly put 2 bike lengths between him and the rest of the flailing field. Seriously, nobody in today's peloton can match his speed in a short sprint. In a long drag race with either Hushovd or Boonen, Robbie might have a disadvantage, but at 200m or less, he's simply unbeatable.
David Millar rode a brave race today, getting out early by himself and then working with a few other riders who decided to get some TV time. No doubt, all of England would have been rooting for David today. Short of getting the win today, slipping into the Polka Dot jersey of the KOM and third place overall was decent consolation.
Now the Tour returns to the European continent for a few hours in France before finishing in the city of Ghent, Belgium. Robbie will be very motivated to take a second stage, as his European home is very near Ghent. Boonen, the Golden Boy of Belgium, will be the most motivated rider in the field though and will have his team working its spandex-clad asses off to get him to the line. McEwen's fall has given him reason to worry about his chances for the rest of the Tour and may prevent him from the win tomorrow. If there's a rider in this race who can ride with pain, it's Robbie, but a wrist injury is a real problem for a sprinter. Having control of your bike is of paramount importance and Robbie is world famous for his control skills. With that in mind, I'm afraid to say that Boonen would have the edge on the stage tomorrow.
The roll into Ghent is largely board flat with zero rated climbs, so Millar won't have to defend his maillot pois. The final run in to the finish is relatively tame... but this is the Tour and nerves will be stretched thin and all of Belgium will be on hand to see if Boonen can grab the stage win. It should be an exciting finish and well worth watching.
Until tomorrow! A bientot.
Tim
Hats off today, to McEwen though. In the closing stages of the race, 21km from the finish, McEwen was caught in a pile-up of riders and had to rely heavily on a few teammates to help him regain contact with the race. At the front, Lampre-Fondital and Quickstep were drilling it for the finish line and to catch the remaining riders of a long break that contained David Millar (who managed to gain enough time bonuses to move up to third overall and enough points to become the race's first KOM- bravo Dave). The fast moving field wasn't quite fast enoug hto drop McEwen altogether and he managed to catch back on with 5km to go, after an all out chase that would have left most riders too thrashed to be able to even consider contesting the sprint. But, with his usual uncanny sense of timing and bike handling, McEwen made it to the front and blasted out of the field with 150m to go. Robbie launched like a missile and quickly put 2 bike lengths between him and the rest of the flailing field. Seriously, nobody in today's peloton can match his speed in a short sprint. In a long drag race with either Hushovd or Boonen, Robbie might have a disadvantage, but at 200m or less, he's simply unbeatable.
David Millar rode a brave race today, getting out early by himself and then working with a few other riders who decided to get some TV time. No doubt, all of England would have been rooting for David today. Short of getting the win today, slipping into the Polka Dot jersey of the KOM and third place overall was decent consolation.
Now the Tour returns to the European continent for a few hours in France before finishing in the city of Ghent, Belgium. Robbie will be very motivated to take a second stage, as his European home is very near Ghent. Boonen, the Golden Boy of Belgium, will be the most motivated rider in the field though and will have his team working its spandex-clad asses off to get him to the line. McEwen's fall has given him reason to worry about his chances for the rest of the Tour and may prevent him from the win tomorrow. If there's a rider in this race who can ride with pain, it's Robbie, but a wrist injury is a real problem for a sprinter. Having control of your bike is of paramount importance and Robbie is world famous for his control skills. With that in mind, I'm afraid to say that Boonen would have the edge on the stage tomorrow.
The roll into Ghent is largely board flat with zero rated climbs, so Millar won't have to defend his maillot pois. The final run in to the finish is relatively tame... but this is the Tour and nerves will be stretched thin and all of Belgium will be on hand to see if Boonen can grab the stage win. It should be an exciting finish and well worth watching.
Until tomorrow! A bientot.
Tim
Saturday, July 07, 2007
Tour de France- Prologue
Today's prologue was won by the current World Champion in the Time Trial, Fabian Cancellara- no big surprise there (and I picked him to win, so I'm already beating BK). The surprise was Andreas Kloden taking second. Less of a surprise was Hincapie taking third, which he wasn't happy about... but considering the TT strength of the two riders ahead of him, he did well. Dave Zabriskie finished in 11th, which is a bit surprising, but overall the prologue went roughly as expected.
I admit I was a little surprised to see Wiggins in 4th, Millar in 13th and Rogers in 20th... but that's a prologue for you. The times are so close, if you simply hold your head a little too high for 1Km, you lose enough time to drop several places. That said, as I think about it, I am surprised to see that McEwen rode the prologue like a weekend training ride, finishing 148th and 1:09 down. That'll make it damned hard for him to steal the yellow jersey- even for a day. We'll just have to see what his plans are over the next couple days.
Tom Boonen sprinted to finish his prologue today, to keep from losing more time and keep himself in the hunt for the yellow jersey. Since the Tour enters Belgium in two days, Tommy-boy would like to have the yellow jersey on his back when he hits his native roads. I expect him to be riding very aggressively tomorrow.
Speaking of tomorrow (and kicking BK's butt)... I am putting my money on Boonen to win and McEwen to take second. BK's got the same picks, but in the wrong order. It's ok though, she's got 3 weeks to figure out how all this stuff works. You see, BK made the mistake of starting a little contest with me about predicting stage winners. So far, I'm beating her. We'll see what happens by the time the race arrives in Paris... won't we BK? You can also expect to see a little cross-posting going on between the two of us this year. Last year, BK didn't have her own blog up and running full steam, so she was contributing on mine. This year we're gonna post back and forth on the blogs and try to offer up the same love as last year.
Anyway... on to tomorrow; the stage is a good roller, with small hills and easy climbs. It should prove to be a good stage, but the first road stage of the Tour is always a nervous affair and people end up eating lots of pavement in all the goofy riding that happens. Hopefully none of the contenders will be injured this year. With the finish being nearly board flat, it should easily come back together and end in a field sprint. Many people will try to get away, but it ain't gonna work. The sprinters' teams will want the stage far too badly to let a break succeed... sorry... but they'll still try. Look for my boy Boonen to just edge out McEwen and maybe even take the yellow jersey, since he is only 48 seconds back.
Ok, until tomorrow...
Tim
I admit I was a little surprised to see Wiggins in 4th, Millar in 13th and Rogers in 20th... but that's a prologue for you. The times are so close, if you simply hold your head a little too high for 1Km, you lose enough time to drop several places. That said, as I think about it, I am surprised to see that McEwen rode the prologue like a weekend training ride, finishing 148th and 1:09 down. That'll make it damned hard for him to steal the yellow jersey- even for a day. We'll just have to see what his plans are over the next couple days.
Tom Boonen sprinted to finish his prologue today, to keep from losing more time and keep himself in the hunt for the yellow jersey. Since the Tour enters Belgium in two days, Tommy-boy would like to have the yellow jersey on his back when he hits his native roads. I expect him to be riding very aggressively tomorrow.
Speaking of tomorrow (and kicking BK's butt)... I am putting my money on Boonen to win and McEwen to take second. BK's got the same picks, but in the wrong order. It's ok though, she's got 3 weeks to figure out how all this stuff works. You see, BK made the mistake of starting a little contest with me about predicting stage winners. So far, I'm beating her. We'll see what happens by the time the race arrives in Paris... won't we BK? You can also expect to see a little cross-posting going on between the two of us this year. Last year, BK didn't have her own blog up and running full steam, so she was contributing on mine. This year we're gonna post back and forth on the blogs and try to offer up the same love as last year.
Anyway... on to tomorrow; the stage is a good roller, with small hills and easy climbs. It should prove to be a good stage, but the first road stage of the Tour is always a nervous affair and people end up eating lots of pavement in all the goofy riding that happens. Hopefully none of the contenders will be injured this year. With the finish being nearly board flat, it should easily come back together and end in a field sprint. Many people will try to get away, but it ain't gonna work. The sprinters' teams will want the stage far too badly to let a break succeed... sorry... but they'll still try. Look for my boy Boonen to just edge out McEwen and maybe even take the yellow jersey, since he is only 48 seconds back.
Ok, until tomorrow...
Tim
Friday, July 06, 2007
Tour "duh" France Preview (very long post...)
Here we are, just hours away from the start of the 94th Tour de France. A few editions have been missed, due to those pesky World Wars, but the event itself is a tad over 100 years old with the first edition of the race being run in 1903 and won by Maurice Garin of France. To say that the race and the riders have changed since then would be an amazingly terrible understatement. The race, the riders, the bikes and cycling as a whole has changed dramatically over the 104 years of the race's history. One thing has remained intact though- the sheer spectacle and impact of the event. No other single race has shaped the history and legend of the sport like Le Tour and no other event has made or destroyed riders quite the same way either.
The 2006 event was marred just days before starting when numerous riders were tossed out of the event, including the pre-race favorites Ivan Basso and Jan Ulrich, due to the Operation Puerto drug scandal. The effects of that scandal are still being felt as riders continue to be implicated in doping. Just days after the event last year, the winner- Floyd Landis- tested "non-negative" for steroids with abnormal testosterone levels. The fallout and pending suspension or acquittal is still being awaited. In 1998, the Tour almost didn't happen due to the Festina Affair doping scandal that rocked the event and lead to rider protests of the way they were being treated by the race organizers and the French police. The winner of that edition was Marco Pantani, who was later found guilty of doping and sporting fraud and who later committed suicide via a drug overdose, after suffering years of depression after his doping troubles.
Needless to say, things are a mess at the moment. Erik Zabel, 6-time winner of the sprinter's green jersey, admitted to doping during his time with the T-Mobile team (when it was called Telekom). Oddly, he claims to have only doped in 1996- the year that CSC team director Bjarne Riis won the Tour while also riding for Telekom. Riis has since confessed to doping during his career and doping to win the Tour. Obviously, the fallout caused by all of this doping is casting quiet a dark cloud over the event and the sport of cycling itself. Hell, the current winner of the Giro d'Italia, Danilo DiLuca, is now in the middle of a doping controversy and the Giro sprinter's jersey winner, Alessandro Petacchi, is not riding the Tour due to an investigation into alleged doping as well. It would be another striking understatement to say that the Tour and the sport of cycling needs this year's edition to be drug free. Here's to hoping that the winner is squeaky clean.
With no returning winner and other contenders out of the event due to doping links, this year's race looks to be wide open. A few riders stand out as contenders, but there is no one rider who looks like a sure bet. None of the teams look likely to dominate the race either. So, many of the classifications of the event (Overall Winner, Best Sprinter, Best Climber, Best Young Rider and Overall Team) should actually be a contest.
21 teams with 9 riders each will be taking to the streets of London for the Prologue. 189 riders will start, but many will abandon along the way- either due to fatigue, injury or having done their jobs for their team leaders. Of those 189 riders, only a few stand a chance of winning the race or one of the classifications, let alone even winning a stage. As the race has become the most important event in all of cycling, the pressure is extremely high and the nerves are worn extremely thin. Entire seasons (and careers) are built for the next three weeks... in short, this is about to get really good!
A complete list of the teams and their riders can be found here- I'm just gonna cover the important riders and contenders. So, in order of their race numbers during the event... here we go:
Caisse d'Epargne- This is the team of last year's surprise runner up, Oscar Pereiro. Sadly for Oscar, he's likely to be playing a supporting role to the team's true star, Alejandro Valverde. Valverde, though a little lacking in the time trial department, can climb well and is a very good sprinter from out of a small group. He has the punchiness and the nose for the win that a true champion must have. Valverde has been heralded as the next Indurain since he stormed on to the world stage. He's a classy young rider, but has so far never finished a Tour. He nearly won the Vuelta last year, though faded in the mountains and lost to Vinokourov. Can he pull off the Tour win? It's really hard to say, but a lot of Spanish fans will be screaming his name either way. The team has plenty of stength, with riders like Karpets, Arroyo and Portal, so they could actually defend the yellow jersey if they get to... IF.
T-Mobile- The team of former Tour winners and embattled doping scandal riders Bjarne Riis and Jan Ulrich, T-Mobile does at least know how to win the race, but has often fallen victim to poor race tactics and fighting among the numerous team leaders. This year, the team comes to support the GC ambitions of Australian Michael Rogers. Rogers is a three time Time Trial World Champion, so the TT's will be no real problem for him. However, he's not known as a great climber. He's gotten tons better and is now riding for himself and not in the service of another leader. Unfortunately, he doesn't have the best team to support him now. T-Mobile lost Andreas Kloden to Astana, the team of Vinokourov, and lost a few other riders to the Puerto doping scandal (including climbing specialist Oscar Sevilla). On paper, the team looks like it is strong, but not strong enough to win or defend. My money is on T-Mobile trying to sneak a stage win or two while Rogers, 27 years old, tries to find out if he can really contend for the yellow jersey.
Team CSC- CSC is owned and directed by Bjarne Riis, who has said he will not be present during the Tour, to keep the focus on the riders and not on him, after his doping confession. CSC used to employ Ivan Basso as well, but he is serving a racing ban for involvement in the Puerto case and left for Discovery Channel after getting fired by CSC when he was first implicated in the scandal (seems kinda hypocritcal now though, doesn't it). CSC now, like T-Mobile, lacks a true leader for the troops to rally behind. The team is very close knit though, so whoever is doing well will get full support. Carlos Sastre is the team's official leader, but Dave Zabriskie has stated he aims to be a contender in the event as well. With outstanding support riders like current and former Paris-Roubaix winners Stuart O'Grady and Fabian Cancellara (also current TT World Champion) and the always agressive Jens Voigt, CSC is still likely the strongest team in the race. Full of high power riders and fully cohesive, CSC is the team to watch... but not likely for the yellow jersey in Paris.
Predictor-Lotto- The boys in pink are one of the best teams in cycling. With Robbie McEwen as their speed demon, they are sure to take a few stage wins and likely the Green Jersey of best Sprinter. What they lack, and alwways have, is a true contender for the final GC. The team will be riding for Cadel Evans as their GC guy. Cadel is top 10 material and can climb with the best, but he's so far not shown that he can find the legs to last for three weeks. American riders Fred Rodriguez and Chris Horner (originally from the San Diego area and a former co-worker of mine many years ago), will be splitting their time in support of McEwen and Evans. Both riders are also capable of grabbing a stage win, if the chance arises, so keep an eye on them too. The rest of the team is very strong support riders, but it will be hard to see them defending the yellow jersey. Their best hope is for Cadel to take the jersey late in the race, when the other teams are also tired. However... I don't see Evans doing it, as much as I would like to see the likable Aussie win. Instead, look for the team to turn green with McEwen again.
Rabobank- Rabobank is one of the most likable teams, but they do not have a GC threat in their ranks. Instead, they have Michael Rasmussen, the former MTB World Champion (while riding for Haro), gunning for his third climber's jersey. The rail thin Dane is one of the most feared climbers in the racing world, so he will surely be on the hunt for the jersey again. Along with Rasmussen, the team employs 3-time road World Champion Oscar Freire. Sadly though, word is that Oscar is not feeling well with the return of a cyst that sidelined him for most of the year in 2005. Oscar is one of the smartest and cagiest sprinters in the game, but he is also the most fragile. If he can ride strong, he'll be a threat, if not... he won't likely be in Paris. The entire team is strong though, and could contend for the Team Classification. Thomas Dekker, the promising young rider, is set to start his first Tour and is being touted as a possible contender- if not now, then one day. He can climb well, TT with the best and has shown an aggressive style that could take him far. This year? Prolly not.
AG2R Prevoyance- The team of newly crowned French champion Christophe Moreau. Moreau has been the best French rider of the Tour for years now- seemingly the past few decades- but he's not been on the podium. Outside of Richard Virenque, he's been the only French contender in a long, long time. And that's sad. This year, many have him pegged to win. Well, French fans anyway. Here's the God-honest truth: Moreau will NOT win the Tour. The rest of the team, though good, is not great and does not really stand much of a chance to do much more than contend for a stage win. Young Aussie Simon Gerrans might be their best hope of a stage win. Keep an eye on the kid.
Euskaltel-Euskadi- Sponsored by the Basque region of Spain, this team is among the most loved in cycling, especially in Spain and even more especially in the Basque region of Spain. The orange clad riders and fans can be spotted in greatest numbers on the mountains. The team is built largely for climbing and really hurts a lot of other teams and riders with their climbing power. The team is made up of riders that almost nobody knows outside of Spain. That said, people will know their names better when the race hits the toughest climbs. No GC contenders, no sprint contenders, no contenders for much of anything... but they will animate the mountain stages and might even defy the odds and grab a win. Hey, anything can happen (except for Moreau winning the Tour).
Lampre-Fondital- The team of Damiano Cunego... who isn't racing at the Tour. Without Cunego, the team stands a snowball's chance in hell of winning the GC, so they will be putting all their hopes into formidable sprinter Danilo Napolitano. The team actually has a few strong riders who can sprint well, so look for them at the front of the race when the sprint trains are setting up. Napolitano is fast, but then again, so is Alessandro Ballan or Daniele Bennati. The team will be looking for stage wins in the sprints and the rest of the time will likely be keeping their heads out of the wind and resting for the chance to set up a sprint. Napolitano could prove to be McEwen's biggest threat.
Gerolsteiner- The "other German team" in the Tour. Made up of great one-day event riders and Stefan Schumacher. Schumacher is the team's only real hope for anything, but is not a GC threat. He can take a win or two, but that's about all. Though I like the team, I wouldn't expect to see too much of them. Maybe a stage win or two... but that's about all they can hope for.
Credit Agricole- Thor Hushovd, the huge Norwegian, will be looking to win another green jersey and hopefully a stage or two (he won two last year). Hushovd is one of those sprinters who is neither the fastest from far away or up close, but he manages to get his nose over the line somehow. He's a big boy and takes up a lot of room on the road. On top of that, he's a good guy, even if he looks like he might kill you. Unfortunately, if McEwen is on form, Hushovd will be left to chase him and pick up the points left over. Still, I expect him to take a stage. Outside of that, the team really doesn't have much else going on. Building a team for the Tour with 5 French riders is just a bad idea... but hopefully Thor can do the job.
Discovery Channel- The team of former 7 time Tour winner, Lance Armstrong. Life after Lance has been really hard for the team. Last year was a bit painful for the team, though they fought hard and tried. Even without Lance, the wins come to the team... just not at the Tour. Johan Bruyneel is probably the best team director in the sport, at least one of the best. He was able to shepherd Lance to all of his wins and even Lance said it would not have been possible without Johan. Still, Johan can't make just any rider win. Sadly for him. The team is now being led by Levi Leipheimer, since Ivan Basso is now serving a ban for doping. Levi, though I like the guy and he's been in the top ten before, is still not likely to win. He could, if he has damned good legs, make the final podium. His climbing, though sometimes spotty, is superb and his TT riding has become very good as well. Unfortunately, Levi seems to struggle from either that dreaded "off day" or crisis of confidence every year at the Tour. He's won the shorter Tour of Germany in the past, along with the Tour of California this year. He can contend in the shorter stage races, for sure, but can he do it for three weeks? Even he doesn't know that answer. George Hincapie returns again with the team to try and get a stage win and maybe even try to better his maiden attempt at the GC last year. George went to the Tour as a hopeful leader and came up way short. This year, the pressure is gone and he is able to return to his faithful lieutenant role. That means he can go for a stage win, if given the right conditions. The team also has other strong riders in the young gun Alberto Contador and the potential-laden Yaroslav Popovych. Can this team win? Not the GC probably, but maybe the Team Classification.
Bouygues Telecom- Even more French than Cerdit-Agricole and with even less of a chance to win the Tour. Maybe, just maybe, they can take a stage win... but I dunno. Thomas Voeckler is on nearly everybody's likable-guy list, after riding in yellow for several days during the 2004 Tour. He fought his ass off to stay in yellow and won the hearts of cycling fans around the world. The team always seems to find a way to get the team kit on TV and did take a stage last year. For a bunch of ho-hum riders, they do ride with heart. However, heart only takes you so far and these guys will be working hard.
Agritubel- One of the wildcard teams from the Continental Pro Tour ranks, these guys ride with heart too, but this is the Tour. I'd love to see them take a stage win, but this is going to be the hardest three weeks of the season for this team... just to survive. Last year they actually got a stage win and this year's team looks a bit stronger. Can they do it with a team of mid-level Euro pros on the big stage again? Maybe. Maybe not. At least you know they will be trying.
Cofidis- Here's another great team of riders who will fight it out and contend for stage wins, but they lack a GC threat. Packed with strong riders, they should be able to take a win. If nothing else, Brad Wiggins is the odds-on favorite to win the prologue in London. Outside of Wiggins, the team hopes rest with very classy rider Sylvain Chavenel. He's been touted as one the great French hopes to win... but he won't. He's a strong all around rider, but he's lacked the necessary talent to pull off the big win- especially in a three week race. He's a favorite among the French fans, but he's not gonna win.
Liquigas- Home to embattled Giro winner Danilo DiLuca, Liquigas is going to be racing the Tour for stage wins. The team's best hope is for a stage win from Filippo Pozzato. Other than that... long, doomed breakaways for camera time for the sponsors. I love these guys, but they are not going to be able to do too much. The team is not weak, but they are tired from the Giro and fighting off doping allegations. Look for them to race bravely and hopefully try to get a stage win.
Francaise des Jeux- Another French team with riders who are great and all... but they will be fighting for scraps. Once a great team, and still a really good team, the team this year will be looking for opportunities. Directed by former Paris-Roubaix winner, Marc Madiot, the team has great tactical sense and might actually grab a win. Look for them to animate the race with some of the other smaller teams. Sandy Casar could still surprise a few folks... they sure need him to.
Quickstep-Innergetic- This is the team of Tornado Tom Boonen. Tom is the peloton's most feared sprinter when he is on form. He says he that he is and that he is super motivated for the battle with McEwen for the green jersey. Tom is the Belgian national hero and will be doing all he can to take the yellow jersey and wear it when the Tour enters Belgium. Without Tom, the team really has no hope of doing anything. This team is built 100% around protecting Boonen and his blistering sprint. If he gets to the finish line in good position, he's nearly unbeatable. As a winner of many of the toughest Spring Calssics, including Roubaix, Tom is no stranger to suffering it alone and in hard conditions. If he has the legs, he'll hurt people with them. I expect a darned good battle between Tom and Robbie. It should be too close to call until we get to Paris.
Milram- Without Petacchi, thanks to doping problems, the team is now relying heavily on confessed doper and much-loved German veteran Zabel. The aging star still has great speed, but can he find enough speed to contest the sprints with the new young guns? Not likely. Maybe Brett Lancaster will pop out of his leadout roll and move up to main sprinter. He's plenty fast and certainly knows how to get to the front. Outside of possible sprint stage wins, the team doesn't have much to do at the Tour. With the cloud of doping over the team and Petacchi out, they will be riding to protect their image. Hopefully they do that.
Astana- This is the team to watch! If anybody has a shot at winning the Tour and has a reason to try, it's Vinokourov. Thrown out last year because he didn't have enough riders to field a team, Vino went on to win the Vuelta and prove that he could win a 3 week race. He's also brought over former T-Mobile teammate Andreas Kloden- who was third last year and second in 2004. Also on the team is former Giro winner Paolo Savoldelli. This is the team that could truly challenge for the yellow jersey as well as the Team Classification. Kloden wants to win the Tour, though he says he'll be working for Vino, unless he falters. With two major contenders at the helm, the team will either slaughter the field or implode loudly. I expect that Vinokourov will ride as he always does- attacking, attacking, attacking. He seems to race with reckless abandon, yet it works. Kloden is far more methodical, much like his friend, mentor and former teammate Ulrich. Regardless, Astana is going to be the team to beat.
Saunier Duval-Prodir- This team is fresh off of winning the Team title at the Giro, along with 4 stage wins with 4 different riders. However, this is not the same team- outside of Iban Mayo. Mayo seems to be finding some of his former form, so he could be a dark horse. That said, he's never finished a Tour and once said that he felt the race just was not for him. Oh well, he's back to try again. Also coming for the ride is the very popular long-time fighter of doping allegations and later confessor of doping, Robert Millar (I meant DAVID Millar- Ed). Something about Millar keeps him a popular rider and he is finding ways to win again- he says clean now. He should be more than a little motivated to win the opening prologue in London, so look for his time to be among the fastest on the day. The team is packed with climbing talent, so the mountain stages will be fought out between the yellow Saunier jerseys and the orange of Euskaltel-Euskadi.
Team Barloworld- The other wildcard Continental team, Barloworld should help animate things and will likely pin all its hopes on fast man Robert Hunter of South Africa. Hunter can win with the big boys, when he's at his best, but can his team get him into position? That's going to be the big question. The rest of the team is made up of very capable riders, but their best hope is to get into a longshot breakaway and hope that the real GC contenders are willing to let them get away. Otherwise, they are going to be hoping to get Hunter into the right place at the right time. Expect to see them in long suicide breaks... but not necessarily on the podium.
And that's the team break down. (Damn that took forever!)
It's almost time now! Vive le Tour!
Tim
The 2006 event was marred just days before starting when numerous riders were tossed out of the event, including the pre-race favorites Ivan Basso and Jan Ulrich, due to the Operation Puerto drug scandal. The effects of that scandal are still being felt as riders continue to be implicated in doping. Just days after the event last year, the winner- Floyd Landis- tested "non-negative" for steroids with abnormal testosterone levels. The fallout and pending suspension or acquittal is still being awaited. In 1998, the Tour almost didn't happen due to the Festina Affair doping scandal that rocked the event and lead to rider protests of the way they were being treated by the race organizers and the French police. The winner of that edition was Marco Pantani, who was later found guilty of doping and sporting fraud and who later committed suicide via a drug overdose, after suffering years of depression after his doping troubles.
Needless to say, things are a mess at the moment. Erik Zabel, 6-time winner of the sprinter's green jersey, admitted to doping during his time with the T-Mobile team (when it was called Telekom). Oddly, he claims to have only doped in 1996- the year that CSC team director Bjarne Riis won the Tour while also riding for Telekom. Riis has since confessed to doping during his career and doping to win the Tour. Obviously, the fallout caused by all of this doping is casting quiet a dark cloud over the event and the sport of cycling itself. Hell, the current winner of the Giro d'Italia, Danilo DiLuca, is now in the middle of a doping controversy and the Giro sprinter's jersey winner, Alessandro Petacchi, is not riding the Tour due to an investigation into alleged doping as well. It would be another striking understatement to say that the Tour and the sport of cycling needs this year's edition to be drug free. Here's to hoping that the winner is squeaky clean.
With no returning winner and other contenders out of the event due to doping links, this year's race looks to be wide open. A few riders stand out as contenders, but there is no one rider who looks like a sure bet. None of the teams look likely to dominate the race either. So, many of the classifications of the event (Overall Winner, Best Sprinter, Best Climber, Best Young Rider and Overall Team) should actually be a contest.
21 teams with 9 riders each will be taking to the streets of London for the Prologue. 189 riders will start, but many will abandon along the way- either due to fatigue, injury or having done their jobs for their team leaders. Of those 189 riders, only a few stand a chance of winning the race or one of the classifications, let alone even winning a stage. As the race has become the most important event in all of cycling, the pressure is extremely high and the nerves are worn extremely thin. Entire seasons (and careers) are built for the next three weeks... in short, this is about to get really good!
A complete list of the teams and their riders can be found here- I'm just gonna cover the important riders and contenders. So, in order of their race numbers during the event... here we go:
Caisse d'Epargne- This is the team of last year's surprise runner up, Oscar Pereiro. Sadly for Oscar, he's likely to be playing a supporting role to the team's true star, Alejandro Valverde. Valverde, though a little lacking in the time trial department, can climb well and is a very good sprinter from out of a small group. He has the punchiness and the nose for the win that a true champion must have. Valverde has been heralded as the next Indurain since he stormed on to the world stage. He's a classy young rider, but has so far never finished a Tour. He nearly won the Vuelta last year, though faded in the mountains and lost to Vinokourov. Can he pull off the Tour win? It's really hard to say, but a lot of Spanish fans will be screaming his name either way. The team has plenty of stength, with riders like Karpets, Arroyo and Portal, so they could actually defend the yellow jersey if they get to... IF.
T-Mobile- The team of former Tour winners and embattled doping scandal riders Bjarne Riis and Jan Ulrich, T-Mobile does at least know how to win the race, but has often fallen victim to poor race tactics and fighting among the numerous team leaders. This year, the team comes to support the GC ambitions of Australian Michael Rogers. Rogers is a three time Time Trial World Champion, so the TT's will be no real problem for him. However, he's not known as a great climber. He's gotten tons better and is now riding for himself and not in the service of another leader. Unfortunately, he doesn't have the best team to support him now. T-Mobile lost Andreas Kloden to Astana, the team of Vinokourov, and lost a few other riders to the Puerto doping scandal (including climbing specialist Oscar Sevilla). On paper, the team looks like it is strong, but not strong enough to win or defend. My money is on T-Mobile trying to sneak a stage win or two while Rogers, 27 years old, tries to find out if he can really contend for the yellow jersey.
Team CSC- CSC is owned and directed by Bjarne Riis, who has said he will not be present during the Tour, to keep the focus on the riders and not on him, after his doping confession. CSC used to employ Ivan Basso as well, but he is serving a racing ban for involvement in the Puerto case and left for Discovery Channel after getting fired by CSC when he was first implicated in the scandal (seems kinda hypocritcal now though, doesn't it). CSC now, like T-Mobile, lacks a true leader for the troops to rally behind. The team is very close knit though, so whoever is doing well will get full support. Carlos Sastre is the team's official leader, but Dave Zabriskie has stated he aims to be a contender in the event as well. With outstanding support riders like current and former Paris-Roubaix winners Stuart O'Grady and Fabian Cancellara (also current TT World Champion) and the always agressive Jens Voigt, CSC is still likely the strongest team in the race. Full of high power riders and fully cohesive, CSC is the team to watch... but not likely for the yellow jersey in Paris.
Predictor-Lotto- The boys in pink are one of the best teams in cycling. With Robbie McEwen as their speed demon, they are sure to take a few stage wins and likely the Green Jersey of best Sprinter. What they lack, and alwways have, is a true contender for the final GC. The team will be riding for Cadel Evans as their GC guy. Cadel is top 10 material and can climb with the best, but he's so far not shown that he can find the legs to last for three weeks. American riders Fred Rodriguez and Chris Horner (originally from the San Diego area and a former co-worker of mine many years ago), will be splitting their time in support of McEwen and Evans. Both riders are also capable of grabbing a stage win, if the chance arises, so keep an eye on them too. The rest of the team is very strong support riders, but it will be hard to see them defending the yellow jersey. Their best hope is for Cadel to take the jersey late in the race, when the other teams are also tired. However... I don't see Evans doing it, as much as I would like to see the likable Aussie win. Instead, look for the team to turn green with McEwen again.
Rabobank- Rabobank is one of the most likable teams, but they do not have a GC threat in their ranks. Instead, they have Michael Rasmussen, the former MTB World Champion (while riding for Haro), gunning for his third climber's jersey. The rail thin Dane is one of the most feared climbers in the racing world, so he will surely be on the hunt for the jersey again. Along with Rasmussen, the team employs 3-time road World Champion Oscar Freire. Sadly though, word is that Oscar is not feeling well with the return of a cyst that sidelined him for most of the year in 2005. Oscar is one of the smartest and cagiest sprinters in the game, but he is also the most fragile. If he can ride strong, he'll be a threat, if not... he won't likely be in Paris. The entire team is strong though, and could contend for the Team Classification. Thomas Dekker, the promising young rider, is set to start his first Tour and is being touted as a possible contender- if not now, then one day. He can climb well, TT with the best and has shown an aggressive style that could take him far. This year? Prolly not.
AG2R Prevoyance- The team of newly crowned French champion Christophe Moreau. Moreau has been the best French rider of the Tour for years now- seemingly the past few decades- but he's not been on the podium. Outside of Richard Virenque, he's been the only French contender in a long, long time. And that's sad. This year, many have him pegged to win. Well, French fans anyway. Here's the God-honest truth: Moreau will NOT win the Tour. The rest of the team, though good, is not great and does not really stand much of a chance to do much more than contend for a stage win. Young Aussie Simon Gerrans might be their best hope of a stage win. Keep an eye on the kid.
Euskaltel-Euskadi- Sponsored by the Basque region of Spain, this team is among the most loved in cycling, especially in Spain and even more especially in the Basque region of Spain. The orange clad riders and fans can be spotted in greatest numbers on the mountains. The team is built largely for climbing and really hurts a lot of other teams and riders with their climbing power. The team is made up of riders that almost nobody knows outside of Spain. That said, people will know their names better when the race hits the toughest climbs. No GC contenders, no sprint contenders, no contenders for much of anything... but they will animate the mountain stages and might even defy the odds and grab a win. Hey, anything can happen (except for Moreau winning the Tour).
Lampre-Fondital- The team of Damiano Cunego... who isn't racing at the Tour. Without Cunego, the team stands a snowball's chance in hell of winning the GC, so they will be putting all their hopes into formidable sprinter Danilo Napolitano. The team actually has a few strong riders who can sprint well, so look for them at the front of the race when the sprint trains are setting up. Napolitano is fast, but then again, so is Alessandro Ballan or Daniele Bennati. The team will be looking for stage wins in the sprints and the rest of the time will likely be keeping their heads out of the wind and resting for the chance to set up a sprint. Napolitano could prove to be McEwen's biggest threat.
Gerolsteiner- The "other German team" in the Tour. Made up of great one-day event riders and Stefan Schumacher. Schumacher is the team's only real hope for anything, but is not a GC threat. He can take a win or two, but that's about all. Though I like the team, I wouldn't expect to see too much of them. Maybe a stage win or two... but that's about all they can hope for.
Credit Agricole- Thor Hushovd, the huge Norwegian, will be looking to win another green jersey and hopefully a stage or two (he won two last year). Hushovd is one of those sprinters who is neither the fastest from far away or up close, but he manages to get his nose over the line somehow. He's a big boy and takes up a lot of room on the road. On top of that, he's a good guy, even if he looks like he might kill you. Unfortunately, if McEwen is on form, Hushovd will be left to chase him and pick up the points left over. Still, I expect him to take a stage. Outside of that, the team really doesn't have much else going on. Building a team for the Tour with 5 French riders is just a bad idea... but hopefully Thor can do the job.
Discovery Channel- The team of former 7 time Tour winner, Lance Armstrong. Life after Lance has been really hard for the team. Last year was a bit painful for the team, though they fought hard and tried. Even without Lance, the wins come to the team... just not at the Tour. Johan Bruyneel is probably the best team director in the sport, at least one of the best. He was able to shepherd Lance to all of his wins and even Lance said it would not have been possible without Johan. Still, Johan can't make just any rider win. Sadly for him. The team is now being led by Levi Leipheimer, since Ivan Basso is now serving a ban for doping. Levi, though I like the guy and he's been in the top ten before, is still not likely to win. He could, if he has damned good legs, make the final podium. His climbing, though sometimes spotty, is superb and his TT riding has become very good as well. Unfortunately, Levi seems to struggle from either that dreaded "off day" or crisis of confidence every year at the Tour. He's won the shorter Tour of Germany in the past, along with the Tour of California this year. He can contend in the shorter stage races, for sure, but can he do it for three weeks? Even he doesn't know that answer. George Hincapie returns again with the team to try and get a stage win and maybe even try to better his maiden attempt at the GC last year. George went to the Tour as a hopeful leader and came up way short. This year, the pressure is gone and he is able to return to his faithful lieutenant role. That means he can go for a stage win, if given the right conditions. The team also has other strong riders in the young gun Alberto Contador and the potential-laden Yaroslav Popovych. Can this team win? Not the GC probably, but maybe the Team Classification.
Bouygues Telecom- Even more French than Cerdit-Agricole and with even less of a chance to win the Tour. Maybe, just maybe, they can take a stage win... but I dunno. Thomas Voeckler is on nearly everybody's likable-guy list, after riding in yellow for several days during the 2004 Tour. He fought his ass off to stay in yellow and won the hearts of cycling fans around the world. The team always seems to find a way to get the team kit on TV and did take a stage last year. For a bunch of ho-hum riders, they do ride with heart. However, heart only takes you so far and these guys will be working hard.
Agritubel- One of the wildcard teams from the Continental Pro Tour ranks, these guys ride with heart too, but this is the Tour. I'd love to see them take a stage win, but this is going to be the hardest three weeks of the season for this team... just to survive. Last year they actually got a stage win and this year's team looks a bit stronger. Can they do it with a team of mid-level Euro pros on the big stage again? Maybe. Maybe not. At least you know they will be trying.
Cofidis- Here's another great team of riders who will fight it out and contend for stage wins, but they lack a GC threat. Packed with strong riders, they should be able to take a win. If nothing else, Brad Wiggins is the odds-on favorite to win the prologue in London. Outside of Wiggins, the team hopes rest with very classy rider Sylvain Chavenel. He's been touted as one the great French hopes to win... but he won't. He's a strong all around rider, but he's lacked the necessary talent to pull off the big win- especially in a three week race. He's a favorite among the French fans, but he's not gonna win.
Liquigas- Home to embattled Giro winner Danilo DiLuca, Liquigas is going to be racing the Tour for stage wins. The team's best hope is for a stage win from Filippo Pozzato. Other than that... long, doomed breakaways for camera time for the sponsors. I love these guys, but they are not going to be able to do too much. The team is not weak, but they are tired from the Giro and fighting off doping allegations. Look for them to race bravely and hopefully try to get a stage win.
Francaise des Jeux- Another French team with riders who are great and all... but they will be fighting for scraps. Once a great team, and still a really good team, the team this year will be looking for opportunities. Directed by former Paris-Roubaix winner, Marc Madiot, the team has great tactical sense and might actually grab a win. Look for them to animate the race with some of the other smaller teams. Sandy Casar could still surprise a few folks... they sure need him to.
Quickstep-Innergetic- This is the team of Tornado Tom Boonen. Tom is the peloton's most feared sprinter when he is on form. He says he that he is and that he is super motivated for the battle with McEwen for the green jersey. Tom is the Belgian national hero and will be doing all he can to take the yellow jersey and wear it when the Tour enters Belgium. Without Tom, the team really has no hope of doing anything. This team is built 100% around protecting Boonen and his blistering sprint. If he gets to the finish line in good position, he's nearly unbeatable. As a winner of many of the toughest Spring Calssics, including Roubaix, Tom is no stranger to suffering it alone and in hard conditions. If he has the legs, he'll hurt people with them. I expect a darned good battle between Tom and Robbie. It should be too close to call until we get to Paris.
Milram- Without Petacchi, thanks to doping problems, the team is now relying heavily on confessed doper and much-loved German veteran Zabel. The aging star still has great speed, but can he find enough speed to contest the sprints with the new young guns? Not likely. Maybe Brett Lancaster will pop out of his leadout roll and move up to main sprinter. He's plenty fast and certainly knows how to get to the front. Outside of possible sprint stage wins, the team doesn't have much to do at the Tour. With the cloud of doping over the team and Petacchi out, they will be riding to protect their image. Hopefully they do that.
Astana- This is the team to watch! If anybody has a shot at winning the Tour and has a reason to try, it's Vinokourov. Thrown out last year because he didn't have enough riders to field a team, Vino went on to win the Vuelta and prove that he could win a 3 week race. He's also brought over former T-Mobile teammate Andreas Kloden- who was third last year and second in 2004. Also on the team is former Giro winner Paolo Savoldelli. This is the team that could truly challenge for the yellow jersey as well as the Team Classification. Kloden wants to win the Tour, though he says he'll be working for Vino, unless he falters. With two major contenders at the helm, the team will either slaughter the field or implode loudly. I expect that Vinokourov will ride as he always does- attacking, attacking, attacking. He seems to race with reckless abandon, yet it works. Kloden is far more methodical, much like his friend, mentor and former teammate Ulrich. Regardless, Astana is going to be the team to beat.
Saunier Duval-Prodir- This team is fresh off of winning the Team title at the Giro, along with 4 stage wins with 4 different riders. However, this is not the same team- outside of Iban Mayo. Mayo seems to be finding some of his former form, so he could be a dark horse. That said, he's never finished a Tour and once said that he felt the race just was not for him. Oh well, he's back to try again. Also coming for the ride is the very popular long-time fighter of doping allegations and later confessor of doping, Robert Millar (I meant DAVID Millar- Ed). Something about Millar keeps him a popular rider and he is finding ways to win again- he says clean now. He should be more than a little motivated to win the opening prologue in London, so look for his time to be among the fastest on the day. The team is packed with climbing talent, so the mountain stages will be fought out between the yellow Saunier jerseys and the orange of Euskaltel-Euskadi.
Team Barloworld- The other wildcard Continental team, Barloworld should help animate things and will likely pin all its hopes on fast man Robert Hunter of South Africa. Hunter can win with the big boys, when he's at his best, but can his team get him into position? That's going to be the big question. The rest of the team is made up of very capable riders, but their best hope is to get into a longshot breakaway and hope that the real GC contenders are willing to let them get away. Otherwise, they are going to be hoping to get Hunter into the right place at the right time. Expect to see them in long suicide breaks... but not necessarily on the podium.
And that's the team break down. (Damn that took forever!)
It's almost time now! Vive le Tour!
Tim
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